A view is gaining ground that the government lacks direction, with the number of U-turns – each trivial in itself – suggesting policies are not properly thought through. Voters think parties go on the attack when they have nothing to say for themselves. Third, an onslaught against Miliband would not improve the Tories’ standing, and could damage it further. Those who say they will vote Labour are not unaware of his flaws they just say they’ll vote Labour anyway. Second, even if the Tories did make people think less of Miliband, the effect on Labour’s support would be minimal. People did not decide he was “weird” because the Tories told them to. Voters, in turn, make up their own minds. The Tories do not present Miliband, he presents himself. Political insiders cherish the belief that they can present their opponents in a way that deters potential voters, but it simply does not work like that.

Painting Miliband as aloof could backfire on a prime minister who faces exactly the same charge, but that is beside the point. There are at least three reasons why this is a terrible idea.įirst, it won’t work. The Conservatives do not want to go into an election with the leaders’ relative ratings as they are – but it is depressing to hear that plans are afoot to paint Miliband as the Michael Dukakis of British politics: part of a metropolitan elite with no understanding of mainstream concerns. Deteriorating opinions of Cameron will therefore have a bigger impact on the Conservatives’ vote share than worsening views of Miliband would have on Labour’s. Many people supported the Conservatives because of David Cameron, while many people supported Labour despite Ed Miliband. His biggest positive – a hope he would stand up for ordinary people – reflected his party’s brand rather than him.

Miliband seemed out of his depth, lucky to have won the leadership against his better-qualified brother. Views of Cameron were the main factor in drawing people to the Tories – more important than policies, or negative views about Miliband or Labour. These characteristics outweighed a faint impression of smugness, arrogance or ruthlessness. In my research on the three leaders last year, only Cameron served as a net attractor of voters to his party. Nevertheless, the latest figures are causing angst in Tory circles.Ĭameron is the Conservatives’ biggest asset. No survey has put Miliband ahead on the question of who would make the best prime minister. Last weekend YouGov found his net satisfaction rating – the number thinking he is doing well, minus the (rather greater) number who think he is doing badly – is the same as Ed Miliband’s. David Cameron is falling in voters’ estimation.

Drawn In by Sean Ashcroft